A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
