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It simply cannot continue. It makes no rational sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's Premier League clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, this feat seemed improbable, as the hosts controlled proceedings, took the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea are vulnerability with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable habit of securing away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his first effort was saved by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might believe a bit of luck was due, and it's undeniable the first goal had a significant element of good fortune. At the moment, however, fortune seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins were by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula should not, but observers have been claiming that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their results will finally align with their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Coming from behind is not just a feature of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very skilled at changing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa became the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had struggled with few chances. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca seemed unable to react as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is better at devising a game plan with preparation time than adapting on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of players producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's seldom the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it delivering to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be considered as in the title race, arguably more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.