It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
